At Boy Scout camps in the year 2000, milk doesn’t spoil, knots are rarely used and backpacks have been replaced by rockets that deliver camping gear in “near-zero time.”
That’s according to the 1960 predictions of Nostradamus, at least.
In the February 1960 issue of Scouting magazine, there’s a fun, tongue-in-cheek article that channels the prognosticating ability of that 16th-century French seer to predict what the world — and Scouting — will be like in 2000. Suffice it to say there are a few hits and many, many misses.
Now that we’re more than a decade past the year 2000, it’s fun to see what Nostradamus (aka the writers at Scouting magazine) got right and what they got horribly wrong. Follow the jump for 11 predictions and my assessment of how close they were to reality.
11. Committee meetings by video phone
1960 prediction: “Scouters will hail the boon of videophone. With it, they can sit in comfort at home but see and hear the rest of the committee for a meeting. There’s danger troops may want to use it to supplant troop meetings.”
Verdict: Possible, but not happening. Today’s Scouters still prefer the old-fashioned face-to-face meeting, though 2000 technology did make it possible for those who couldn’t attend to virtually be there.
10. No more “old-fashioned tedious” hiking
1960 prediction: Scouts in 2000 no longer must hike to get from Point A to Point B. “There’s no old-fashioned tedious walking,” Nostradamus writes. “… the choice of Scouts is the bicycopter, with rotor blades powered by the atomnode each boy carries in his pocket.”
Verdict: Nope. Thankfully for fans of Philmont and other great hiking destinations, hiking is still alive and well. Though by Day 8 of hiking with a 40-pound pack, I’d be willing to give the bicycopter a try.
9. Cooking has gotten much easier
1960 prediction: “On the menu: milk that won’t sour and meat that won’t spoil. No rubbing sticks together to start a fire — no fire. A palm-size gadget cooks everything in a flash, like mom does it at home.”
Verdict: False. If true, these predictions wouldn’t just solve Scout hunger, they’d solve world hunger. Besides, there’s no way s’mores would taste any good from a palm-size cooker.
8. So has cleaning dishes
1960 prediction: “Air waves clean and sterilize dishes in a jiffy by ultrasonics.”
Verdict: Unfortunately, no. In 2000 (and 2013), KP duty is still a reality. Now which patrol was supposed to do dishes tonight?
7. America’s population will grow
1960 prediction: “America’s population will grow to 210,000,000 by 1970, and 300,000,000 by the year 2000, most of it jammed into already crowded urban centers.”
Verdict: This prediction not specific to Scouting was pretty close. Though figuring out that population would grow isn’t exactly rocket science. The 1970 Census put the U.S. population at 203 million, while the 2000 Census recorded 281 million Americans.
6. Scouters will have more time to volunteer
1960 prediction: “More volunteers will have more leisure time to help lead more boys.”
Verdict: If only. In fact, most of today’s Scouters work two full-time jobs: their real one and their Scouting one.
5. Tents will give way to “air-jet shields”
1960 prediction: “Air-jet shields — light, dry, insect-proof, weightless, instantly adjustable — replace tents. Air-jet streams provide 100 per cent pure air mattresses.”
Verdict: Well, they got the light and insect-proof part right. Modern tents, though, are still tents. I will say that air-jet shield sounds mighty nice, albeit technologically far-fetched.
4. No more gear to carry, thanks to “radar-rockets”
1960 prediction: “No gear, no pack, no duffel bag to carry. Radar-rockets deliver anything needed in near-zero time.”
Verdict: OK, let me get this straight. The bicycopter means we don’t have to hike, the air-jet shield means we don’t need a heavy tent and now radar-rockets mean we don’t have to carry gear. So, um, what’s the point of going at all? Still, though, if radar-rockets meant we could get heavy Dutch ovens into the backcountry on backpacking trips, I’d be all for them.
3. Communication by pocket-size devices
1960 prediction: “Communication by pocket-size transmitter-receiver is instantaneous. The same device gives remote control of all machines and gadgets.”
Verdict: True now but less true in 2000. Pocket-size phones in 2000 offered instant communication, but 2013’s smartphones can indeed control countless other machines and gadgets — garage doors, door locks, TVs, cars, lights and more.
2. The new face of Scoutcraft (no more compass or knots)
1960 prediction: “Scoutcraft has a new face. A compass is a curiosity; signaling is obsolete. Knots are little used. The axe is a museum piece. … There’s a host of new merit badges.”
Verdict: Partly true. For better or worse, compasses aren’t used as much these days as they were in 1960. And signaling is nearly obsolete. Knots and axes, however, are still alive and well. And new merit badges? You better believe it.
1. The best is yet to come
1960 prediction: “Scouting’s heyday lies ahead. Scouting changes with the times; it’s a good thing.”
“You doubt my prophesies? Then make your own,” he writes. “Or take comfort that some of my earlier prognostications haven’t happened — yet.”
In other words, the future of Scouting is in your hands. Where will you take it?
The original article (click to enlarge)
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